First Quarter, 2021
Think of the quarter not as the beginning of a new year, but as the end of an extraordinary 12-month period. Learn where our Thematic research is leading us as we look forward.
New & Noteworthy
Explore our latest news and insigts locllay and around the globe.
Investment Update
Fourth Quarter, 2020
After a year full of surprises, including remarkable stock market performance around the globe, we are positioning portfolios somewhat defensively. Learn where our thematic research is leading us in 2021.
Third Quarter, 2020
Despite the pandemic-related fall-off in February and March, the S&P 500 recently hit an all-time high. With a difficult-to-predict economic outlook, what’s next for equity markets? Read our investment update for our perspective.
Second Quarter, 2020
After a first-quarter plunge, equity markets rebounded in the second quarter.
First Quarter, 2020
We are in the midst of a healthcare crisis and a financial crisis. The combination of a rapidly spreading novel coronavirus and dramatic swings in global financial markets creates unprecedented challenges.
Fourth Quarter, 2019
2019 was a good year for almost all asset classes. The S&P 500 total return of 31.5% was the second best in the last 20 years.
Important Disclosures
Important Disclosures
Third Quarter, 2019
Despite strong returns this year, U.S. equity markets remain stuck in a relatively narrow 20% trading range that has prevailed for almost two years. Volatility has increased, but the long running tug-of-war between bulls and bears has yet to be resolved. Important Disclosures
Second Quarter, 2019
Some have called this the most hated bull market in history. The S&P 500 Index finished the first half of 2019 at 2,942, only slightly lower than its all-time closing high of 2,954 reached on June, 20, 2019. S&P 500 six-month return, inclusive of dividends, is an impressive 18.5%, the best first half since 1996. Important Disclosures
First Quarter, 2019
The market has been on a wild ride. December 2018 was the worst December for the S&P 500 since 1931. Then, the first quarter of 2019 was the best first quarter in over 20 years. From sentiment to markets to economic data, there are a plethora of opposing extremes.
Investment Update, Fourth Quarter 2018
Just as investors were settling in for a modestly positive year, U.S. equity markets sold off sharply in the fourth quarter. The sell-off rattled market participants. In this environment, keeping our heads about us and trusting ourselves is critical to achieving long-term investment success, particularly with doubters all around us.
Investment Update, Third Quarter 2018
The S&P 500 Index generated a total return of 7.71% for the third quarter, bringing the nine month return to 10.56%.
Investment Update, Second Quarter 2018
The S&P 500 Index began 2018 with an initial surge from 2,674 to a high of 2,873 on January 26th.
Investment Update, First Quarter 2018
The S&P 500 Index began 2018 at 2,674. It ended the first quarter at 2,641. After accounting for dividends, the S&P generated a relatively small negative return of -0.76%.
Investment Update, Fourth Quarter 2017
2017 was an extraordinary year for stocks. The S&P 500 generated a total return of 21.8%, and rose every single month of the year.
Investment Update, Third Quarter 2017
U.S. equity markets continued a steady climb during the third quarter of 2017.
Investment Update, Second Quarter 2017
Global equity markets rose during the first half of 2017. In fact, annualized returns are on pace for the fifth best showing in 30 years. The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) generated a total return of 4.45% during the second quarter of 2017, bringing its year-to-date return to 11.82%.
Investment Update, First Quarter 2017
During the first quarter of 2017, the S&P 500 Index generated a total return of 6.07%. Almost all of the gain, 5.36%, occurred between early February and early March. Since the election, the S&P has returned slightly over 10%.
Investment Update, Fourth Quarter 2016
2016 was a good year for equity markets.
Investment Update, Third Quarter 2016
There has been no shortage of newsworthy events this year. We’ve endured terrorist attacks on multiple continents and a widespread epidemic, Zika.
Investment Update, Second Quarter 2016
During almost all of the second quarter, U.S. equity markets seemed impervious to bad news. Through June 23, the S&P 500 traded in a 100 point range between 2,025 and 2,125, close to its record high of 2,134 in May, 2015. Then came Brexit.
Investment Update, First Quarter 2016
Global economic growth is influenced by many factors. We pay particular attention to three fundamental factors that, we believe, influence both long term economic growth and returns on investments.
Investment Update, Fourth Quarter 2015
The S&P Index ended 2015 at 2,044, almost exactly where it started the year at 2,059. Including dividends, the Index’s total return for the year was +1.38%. Volatility was higher than in any year since 2008. Market performance was very concentrated.
Investment Update, Third Quarter 2015
Much changed in the third quarter. The narrow trading range that characterized the first seven and a half months of 2015 was breached in mid-August with a significant market decline and increased volatility.
Investment Update, Second Quarter 2015
For the first six months of 2015, the S&P 500 Index has traded in one of the narrowest ranges in […]
Investment Update, First Quarter 2015
US Economic Conditions “Warning: For safety, you should be in good health and free from high blood pressure, heart, back, […]
Investment Update, Fourth Quarter 2014
Economic and Market Conditions (Audio version) By most measures 2014 was a good year for U.S. consumers. Unemployment declined, energy […]
Investment Update, Third Quarter 2014
Economic Conditions (Audio version) What could go wrong? As readers of our quarterly updates know, we’ve been relatively optimistic about the […]
Investment Update, Second Quarter 2014
Economic Conditions In our last quarterly Investment Update we posed a question: Was the relatively modest total return of 1.84% […]
Investment Update, First Quarter 2014
Economic Conditions (Audio version) A Pause that Refreshes or the Beginning of the End? The S&P ended the first quarter […]
Investment Update, Fourth Quarter 2013
Economic Conditions (Audio Version) The over-arching theme for 2013, reminiscent of the Sherlock Holmes story, “Silver Blaze,” can be characterized […]
Investment Update, Third Quarter 2013
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic and Market Conditions (Audio Version) As we entered […]
Investment Update, Second Quarter 2013
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic and Market Conditions As we entered the year, […]
Investment Update, First Quarter 2013
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions (Audio Version) As we entered 2013, Chevy […]
Investment Update, Fourth Quarter 2012
Economic and Market Conditions (Audio Version) Economic growth in the U.S. and worldwide weakened in 2012, despite unprecedented monetary and […]
Investment Update: Third Quarter, 2012
Economic Conditions (Audio Version) The global economy is slowing. We expect roughly 2.5% growth in 2012 and probably a little […]
Investment Update: Second Quarter, 2012
Economic Conditions (Audio Version) Real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the first quarter of 2012. For […]
Investment Update: First Quarter, 2012
Economic Conditions (Audio Version) Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0 % in the fourth quarter of 2011, […]
Investment Update: Fourth Quarter, 2011
Economic Conditions We expect fourth-quarter GDP growth to be about 3.5%, after final revisions, a dramatic increase from the prior […]
Investment Update: Third Quarter, 2011
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions For the first half of 2011, the […]
Investment Update: Second Quarter, 2011
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions Last quarter, we addressed the headwinds facing […]
Investment Update: First Quarter, 2011
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions The first quarter of 2011 showed a […]
Investment Update: Fourth Quarter, 2010
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions For the U.S. economy, 2010 was a […]
Investment Update: Third Quarter, 2010
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions There were numerous reminders in the third […]
Investment Update: Second Quarter, 2010
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions Real gross domestic product (GDP)—the output of […]
Investment Update: First Quarter, 2010
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions The U.S. economic recovery continues, with a […]
Investment Update: Fourth Quarter, 2009
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions The expected recovery in the U.S. economy […]
Investment Update: Third Quarter, 2009
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions We expect positive GDP in the last […]
Investment Update: Second Quarter, 2009
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions First quarter, 2009 U.S. GDP decreased at […]
Investment Update: First Quarter, 2009
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions Fourth quarter, 2008 U.S. GDP decreased at […]
Investment Update: Fourth Quarter, 2008
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions Third quarter, 2008 GDP decreased at an […]
Investment Update: Third Quarter, 2008
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions While second quarter GDP increased at a […]
Investment Update: Second Quarter, 2008
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions We see a very slow growing U.S. […]
Investment Update: First Quarter, 2008
Economic Conditions The expected slowdown is underway; 4th quarter GDP grew at .6%, a sharp deceleration from the prior quarter […]
Investment Update: Fourth Quarter, 2007
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions Third quarter, 2007 GDP increased at an […]
Investment Update: Third Quarter, 2007
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions Second quarter, 2007 GDP increased at an […]
Investment Update: Second Quarter, 2007
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions First quarter, 2007 GDP increased at an […]
Investment Update: First Quarter, 2007
This is a quarterly update of economic conditions and investment strategy. Economic Conditions Fourth quarter, 2006 GDP increased at an […]